Survey suggests Justine Greening and Marsha de Cordova's seats are under threat
Justine Greening MP for Putney, Roehampton and Southfields
A recently published opinion poll is suggesting that Justine Greening’s Putney seat and Marsha de Cordova's Battersea seat could be under threat were a general election to be called.
The survey forms part of a national collection of data by Focaldata for the pro-Remain group Best for Britain and advocacy group Hope not Hate. It put the Liberal Democrats at 29.7% in the Putney Westminster constituency with Ms Greening's for the Conservatives on 24.9%. Labour was third with 20.8% and the Brexit Party was predicted to achieve 13.6%. In Battersea the predicted picture was similar with the Lib Dems at 27.03%, Labour's Marsha de Cordova at 24.87%, the Conservatives at an extremely close 24.44% and the Brexit Party at 11.76%.
Marsha de Cordova MP For Battersea
The polling seems to confirm the outcome of the recent European parliament elections in which the Lib Dems won the largest share of the vote in Wandsworth borough.
Overall the poll is pointing to the Liberal Democrats winning eleven seats in London with the Brexit Party taking three. Labour would lose three of its current seats but would win back all of the seats held by MPs who left to join Change UK.
Labour's Rosena Allin-Khan, who has been the MP for Tooting since 2016, is predicted by the poll to hold onto her seat comfortably at 34.03%, with the Lib Dems at 25.24%, the Conservatives at 18.91% and the Brexit Party at 11.61%.
The figures in the survey were compiled using multilevel regression and post-stratifcation or MRP. This allows projections to be made on a constituency level combining data from a large national sample with Office for National Statistics and local census data. This was the method used by YouGov in 2017 to predict a Labour victory in Kensington which was dismissed as improbable at the time until the result was announced.
A member of the local Lib Dems, speaking in a personal capacity, said, “These numbers are not a surprise to us and show that the Euro poll wasn’t just a protest vote. People like Justine Greening but aren’t going to back a Remain supporting Tory in the hope of stopping Brexit and Labour’s position is too confusing even for them. Boris as Prime Minister just makes the situation clearer and bolsters our support. Labour could have won here at the last election if they had recognised how vulnerable it was and committed resources to the area but they missed their chance. The interesting wild card here is Chuka Ummuna. If he doesn’t get given the Richmond Park seat which looks a certainty for the Lib Dems, then Putney might be a reasonable alternative. The poll data shows Labour holding Streatham and he has moved closer to Putney after getting married so it might suit him and he would be a very strong candidate.”
The survey also shows that currently Boris Johnson would cling on with a tiny majority in Uxbridge with the Brexit Party in second place and Labour and the Lib Dems not far behind. Jeremy Corbyn looks very safe in his Islington North seat but next door Emily Thornberry could be in for a fierce contest in Islington South and Finsbury.
We have asked Justine Greening and Marsha de Cordova for comment on the poll.
June 14, 2019