Wards in SW18 Area Hold Key to Control of Wandsworth
Election winner likely to be determined by votes in West Hill and Southfields
With just a few days to go before the election the bookies are now making Labour slight favourites to win control of Wandsworth borough council. Ladbrokes are quoting them as 10/11 on to end 40 years of Conservative rule.
However, they still regard the result as a close call with the Tories rated as an even bet.This tight a race means that the winner is likely to be determined by a few hundred votes either way in key battleground wards. Some of these wards are partly or wholly in the SW18 post code area. Assuming a uniform swing from 2014 if Labour win two seats in Southfield ward they will have control of the Council.
We have looked in more detail at the wards that are likely to be decisive in determining the result so you can see what is at stake when deciding how to vote. If you are not sure which ward you will be voting in Wandsworth Council has an online map on which you can enter your post code to find out.
The target number of seats for Labour to win is 12 which they could achieve by making gains in wards in the Wandsworth Town area such as West Hill and Southfields as well as around Battersea in Queenstown Road and St Mary's Park (Latchmere). These are areas in which the Labour party made significant gains during the 2017 General Election and a repetition of those results could deliver them victory.
However, London wide polls conducted so far suggest that the swing to Labour is not sufficient to gain control of Wandsworth although these were not done specifically in the borough.
Another unpredictable factor is how EU citizens will choose to use their votes. All of the key wards have a significant proportion of their local populations from other EU countries and this is possibly the last time they will be able to vote in a local election. Collectively number more that the total votes gained by the winning candidates in each ward during the last election so they could have a decisive impact on the result. Wandsworth Council have confirmed to us that at least 26,000 EU citizens are registered and eligible to vote in the borough on 3 May although we don't have the breakdown on a ward by ward basis.
West Hill
This ward is a key battleground in the borough with Labour needing to win at least two of three three seats if they are to gain control of the Council (assuming a uniform swing). Of the three councillors who currently represent the ward, two are not standing for re-election and one, Malcolm Grimston is running as an independent. There is no UKIP candidate standing this time and two rather than one Green which may tend to split the opposition vote. Even so, it would be a huge disappointment for Labour not to take some of the seats. It has a relatively young population with a median age of 32 and one of the highest proportion of EU citizens from other countries at 17.8% according to the 2011 census.
Nominated Candidates - West Hill |
|
|---|---|
Name |
Party |
| Terence Gibbin [Terry] Brown | Green |
| Peter Jon Carpenter | Labour |
| Eleanor Mary Doody | Liberal Democrats |
| Malcolm Charles Grimston | Independent |
| Nobuco Hara | Labour |
| Andrew Charles Hinton | Liberal Democrats |
| Robert Daniel Hughes | Conservative |
| Angela Mary Ireland | Labour |
| Linda Maria Joy | Liberal Democrats |
| Salvatore Murtas | Conservative |
| Alison Dawne Rodwell | Conservative |
| Penny Bianca Staniaszek | Green |
| West Hill Ward Election Result 2014 - Conservative Hold | ||
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| CUFF, Nicholas Richard | Conservative | 2138 |
| GRIMSTON, Malcolm Charles | Conservative | 1880 |
| PETERKIN, Andrew Edward | Conservative | 1810 |
| All the above elected as Councillors | ||
| IRELAND, Angela Mary | Labour | 1420 |
| KHAN, Basheer Ul Haq | Labour | 1413 |
| GALLAGHER, Stephen John | Labour | 1256 |
| SOKOLOWSKI, Tomasz | Green Party | 625 |
| DEVONS, Catherine Stone | Liberal Democrats | 519 |
| VAN RANDWYCK, Hugo Alexander | UKIP | 388 |
| TYLER, Bernard John Croxon | Liberal Democrats | 331 |
| WARD, Christopher Richard | Liberal Democrats | 253 |
| Electorate: 12,161 | Ballot Papers Issued: 4,549 | Turnout: 37.41% |
Southfields
The result in this ward is likely to have a major influence on who controls the Council after the election. Assuming a uniform swing, the capture of the second seat in this ward from the Conservatives would be the one needed for an overall majority. This would require a swing of 9.5% The three sitting councillors are running again as well as an extra Green candidate compared to last time and one from the pro-Remain party Renew. There is also a UKIP candidate in this ward but no independent as there was last time. With a median age of 33 and 12.8% of residents holding a passport from another EU country this ward is shaping up to be very closely fought.
| Nominated Candidates - Southfields | |
|---|---|
Name |
Party |
| Nicola Joanna Blair | Renew |
| Sheila Mary Boswell | Labour |
| Kim Caddy | Conservative |
| Pappathi Durai-Bates | Liberal Democrats |
| Benjamin Joseph Fletcher | Green |
| Guy David Price Griffith | Labour |
| Lauren Jayne Harris | Green |
| Guy Derek Ralph Humphries | Conservative |
| Duncan James Anton Lyons | Liberal Democrats |
| Sam Alex Nicholas | Labour |
| Terence Michael Walsh | Conservative |
| Patricia Mary Ward | UKIP |
| Susan Jane Wixley | Liberal Democrats |
Southfields Ward Election Result 2014 - Conservative Hold |
||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
CADDY, Kim |
Conservative | 2302 |
HUMPHRIES, Guy Derek Ralph |
Conservative | 2291 |
WALSH, Terence Michael |
Conservative | 2172 |
| All the above elected as Councillors | ||
| TATTUM, Ian Stuart | Labour | 1394 |
| BOOKER, Maureen Dorothy | Labour | 1328 |
| MARTIN, Elizabeth | Labour | 1252 |
| RICHMAN, Robert James | Independent | 1106 |
| HUNTER, Connie Anne | Green Party | 773 |
| GRIFFIN-BEALE, Lucy Jane | Liberal Democrats | 460 |
| AHMED, Anna Maria Louise | Liberal Democrats | 443 |
| BROWN, Hugh Palmer | Liberal Democrats | 300 |
| Electorate: 12,752 | Ballot Papers Issued: 5,057 | Turnout: 39.66% |
Fairfield Ward
This is the central ward of Wandsworth which includes Wandsworth High Street, Old York Road and the Town Hall. The ward runs from Mexfield Road in the west, to Plough Road near Clapham Junction in the east, and from the River Thames to the west of Wandsworth Bridge in the north, to Allfarthing Lane to the east of Garratt Lane in the south.
The most vulnerable seat in this ward could be won by Labour with a swing of just over 10% This will be challenging as last time out a UKIP candidate stood in the ward and this time
Nominated Candidates - 3 May 2018 |
|
| Candidate | Party |
| Juliana Agoe Kalley Annan | Labour Party |
| David Richard Carlyon | Green Party |
| George Hilton | Renew |
| Lynne Teresa Jackson | Labour |
| Ian Jewesbury | Labour |
| Piers Conolly McCausland | Conservative |
| Rory Patrick O`Broin | Conservative |
| David Patterson | Liberal Democrats |
| Paul Howard Scaping | Liberal Democrats |
| William Henry Etienne Sweet | Conservative |
| Patrick Martin Warren | Liberal Democrats |
Election Result - May 2014
| Fairfield Ward - Conservatives Hold | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| MCCAUSLAND, Piers Conolly | Conservative | 1924 |
| SWEET, William Henry Etienne | Conservative | 1801 |
| THOM, James Stuart | Conservative | 1752 |
| All the Above Elected | ||
| CRESSWELL, Liane Barber | Labour | 1021 |
| SHARP, Caroline Helen | Labour | 958 |
| PONSONBY, Frederick Matthew Thomas | Labour | 925 |
| WATERMAN, Antony John David | Green Party | 598 |
| WARREN, Patrick Martin | Liberal Democrats | 374 |
| SCAPING, Paul Howard | Liberal Democrats | 325 |
| JOHNSTONE, Jacqueline | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 271 |
| MCLEAN, Seymour Anthony | Independent | 171 |
| Electorate: 11,364 Ballot Papers Issued: 3617 Turnout: 31.83% | ||
Wandsworth Common
This is one of the Conservative's safest seats in the borough and based on the results in the last election if they were to lose all three seats in this ward they would be totally unrepresented on the Council.
Nominated Candidates - Local Election 3 May 2018 |
|
| Candidate | Party |
| Eileen Riley Arms | Liberal Democrats |
| Rosemary Jean Birchall | Conservative |
| Peter Blowes | Labour |
| Adrian John Flook | Conservative |
| Peter Timothy Graham | Conservative |
| Simon James Hudd | Green Party |
| Marium Irfan | Labour |
| Caroline Ogden | Liberal Democrats |
| Simon Anthony Sharich | Liberal Democrats |
| Mathilda Elizabeth Tong | Labour |
Election Result - May 2014
| Wandsworth Common Ward - Conservatives Hold | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| CLAY, Claire Elizabeth | Conservative | 2598 |
| HEASTER, Maurice Adrian Sylvester | Conservative | 2396 |
| TRACEY, Katharine Rosalie | Conservative | 2313 |
| All the Above Elected | ||
| MURDAY, Sophia Juliet | Labour | 916 |
| METCALF, Richard John | Labour | 903 |
| CUNNINGHAM, Kieran Philip | Labour | 875 |
| SCHWARZ, Michael Robert | Green Party | 574 |
| JOHN-RICHARDS, Susan | Liberal Democrats | 404 |
| PASLEY-TYLER, Robert | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 327 |
| Electorate: 10,658 Ballot Papers Issued: 4173 Turnout: 39.2% | ||
Earlsfield Ward
Labour have to win the two seats in this ward they didn't gain during the last election. They only need a 5.1% swing to do so, which would mean failing to achieve a clean sweep here would be a huge disappointment.
| Nominated Candidates - Local Election 3 May 2018 | |
|---|---|
| Candidate | Party |
| David Laurent Chapireau | Liberal Democrats |
| Paul Edgeworth | Liberal Democrats |
| Glyn Kerry Goodwin | Green Party |
| Angela Graham | Conservative |
| Graeme Paul Henderson | Labour |
| Russell Philip Henley | Liberal Democrats |
| James Eric Jeffreys | Conservative |
| Alan Joseph McDonald | Labour |
| Vanessa Anne Mieville | Green Party |
| Lewis Mark Preston | Conservative |
| Joanne Louise Rigby | Labour |
Election Result May 2014
| Earlsfield Ward - Labour gain 1 seat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| KNOWLES, Adrian Carey | Conservative | 2164 |
| LESCOTT, Charles Andrew | Conservative | 2089 |
| STOKES, Rachael Elizabeth | Labour | 1877 |
| All the Above Elected | ||
| MAZUMDAR, Sarbani | Conservative | 1817 |
| ROBERTS, Colin Edward | Labour | 1809 |
| WHITE, Paul John | Labour | 1672 |
| BUTLER, Ciaran John | Green Party | 713 |
| HARMSEN, John | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 361 |
| DAY, Ashley Craig | Liberal Democrats | 348 |
| BAILEY, Oliver Alexander | Liberal Democrats | 329 |
| Electorate: 12,541 Ballot Papers Issued: 4,808 Turnout: 38% | ||
East Putney Ward
East Putney, which contains some parts of the SW18 post code area, would normally be regarded as a safe Conservative ward with one of the seats being held by the leader of the Council, Ravi Govindia. For him to lose his seat there would need to be a 12.6% swing to Labour which would be well above the increase in the vote share they need to take control of the borough. For Labour to take the other two seats in the ward there has to be an even bigger swing of over 16% With no UKIP candidate standing in the seat and one more Green than in 2014 it will be slightly harder for Labour to make gains in this ward.
The ward has a median age of 33 and, as at the 2011 census 13.8% of residents held passports from other EU countries.
Nominated Candidates - East Putney Ward |
|
|---|---|
Name |
Party |
| Finna Jane Ayres | Labour |
| Sarah Jane Louise Binder | Conservative |
| Luigi George [George] Crivelli | Conservative |
| Jonathan Stuart Croall | Green Party |
| Eileen Ann Flanagan | Labour |
| Ravindra Pragji [Ravi] Govindia | Conservative |
| Anita Claire Gray | Green Party |
| Richard John Morris | Green Party |
| Jose Ignacio Rodriguez Andres | Liberal Democrats |
| Hugh Rhys Samuel | Labour |
| John Morris Williams | Liberal Democrats |
| Timothy Guyse Williams | Liberal Democrats |
| East Putney Ward 2014 Result - Conservative Hold | ||
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| MCDONNELL, Leslie Francis | Conservative | 2261 |
| CRIVELLI, Luigi George | Conservative | 2233 |
| GOVINDIA, Ravindra Pragji | Conservative | 2134 |
| All the above elected as Councillors | ||
| FLANAGAN, Eileen Ann | Labour | 1050 |
| GIBBONS, Joseph | Labour | 937 |
| KNOWLES, Robert | Labour | 858 |
| MORRIS, Richard John | Green Party | 644 |
| MIUCCI-CASALE, Fernanda Giovanna | Liberal Democrats | 501 |
| SHOCKET, Godfrey Stuart | Liberal Democrats | 402 |
| WILLIAMS, John Morris | Liberal Democrats | 387 |
| WELLS, Mike Byron | UKIP | 363 |
| Electorate: 12,007 | Ballot Papers Issued: 4,294 | Turnout: 35.80% |
Overall
The number of seats that Labour needs to win to oust the Tories is twelve. There are sixty council seats in Wandsworth and Labour currently hold 19 with the Conservatives on 39 (two Councillors having been elected as Conservatives have left the party). Our analysis shows that they would require a swing of over 9% to gain the final seat that they need.
| Conservative Held Seats from 2014 Election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ward (Seat) | No. of Votes | Majority | Swing Needed |
| Queenstown Ward 3 | 1711 | 33 | 0.4% |
| Queenstown Ward 1 | 1773 | 123 | 1.4% |
| Bedford 2 | 1895 | 179 | 2.0% |
| Earlsfield 2 | 2089 | 280 | 2.9% |
| West Hill 3 | 1810 | 390 | 4.3% |
| Earlsfield 1 | 2164 | 492 | 5.1% |
| West Hill 2 | 1880 | 467 | 5.1% |
| Shaftesbury 3 | 1794 | 567 | 7.6% |
| Southfields 3 | 2172 | 778 | 7.7% |
| St Mary's Park 3 | 2030 | 667 | 7.7% |
| St Mary's Park 2 | 2066 | 796 | 9.2% |
| Southfields 2 | 2291 | 963 | 9.5% |
| Nightingale 3 | 1984 | 795 | 9.6% |
| West Hill 1 | 2138 | 882 | 9.7% |
| Fairfield 3 | 1752 | 731 | 10.1% |
| Shaftesbury 2 | 1850 | 766 | 10.3% |
| Southfields 1 | 2302 | 1050 | 10.4% |
| Nightingale 2 | 2057 | 921 | 11.1% |
| Balham 3 | 2041 | 915 | 11.5% |
| Fairfield 2 | 1801 | 843 | 11.7% |
| St Mary's Park 1 | 2201 | 1021 | 11.8% |
| Balham 2 | 2052 | 957 | 12.0% |
| Shaftesbury 1 | 1932 | 902 | 12.1% |
| East Putney 3 | 2134 | 1084 | 12.6% |
| Nightingale 1 | 2122 | 1063 | 12.8% |
| West Putney 3 | 2221 | 1155 | 13.4% |
| Fairfield 1 | 1924 | 999 | 13.8% |
| Northcote 3 | 1984 | 1096 | 14.9% |
| East Putney 2 | 2233 | 1296 | 15.1% |
| Balham 1 | 2150 | 1281 | 16.1% |
| East Putney 1 | 2261 | 1403 | 16.3% |
| West Putney 2 | 2237 | 1410 | 16.4% |
| Thamesfield 3 | 2437 | 1484 | 16.4% |
| Wandsworth Common 3 | 2313 | 1397 | 16.7% |
| Thamesfield 2 | 2466 | 1586 | 17.5% |
| Wandsworth Common 2 | 2396 | 1493 | 17.9% |
| West Putney 1 | 2429 | 1615 | 18.8% |
| Northcote 2 | 2187 | 1382 | 18.8% |
| Thamesfield 1 | 2579 | 1733 | 19.2% |
| Northcote 1 | 2198 | 1437 | 19.6% |
| Wandsworth Common 1 | 2598 | 1723 | 20.6% |
The methodology used to derive the figures above is to look at each ward on a seat by seat basis. Each ward has three seats and the top polling Conservative successful candidate in 2014 is compared to the top polling unsuccessful Labour candidate. The process is repeated for the second and third candidates from each party excluding successful Labour candidates from 2014. This gives a vote difference and percentage swing needed for every seat in the ward designated as 1, 2 or 3. For example in a seat with the three Conservative Councillors the third placed Labour candidate from 2014 would need to exceed the vote of the first place Conservative Councillor for seat number ‘1’ to be taken.
The population who were EU passport holders in key battleground wards was as follows:
| Ward | Percentage of EU Citizens (2011) |
|---|---|
| West Hill | 17.8 |
| St. Mary’s Park | 16.6 |
| East Putney | 13.8 |
| Southfields | 12.8 |
| Fairfield | 12.3 |
| Shaftesbury | 11.9 |
| Earlsfield | 11.3 |
| Balham | 11.0 |
| Nightingale | 10.0 |
| National Average | 6.4 |
May 2, 2018